Ad spends to drop in 2009 but should yours?

The parent company of Just Media's London office, Aegis Media, have just announced their 2009 media ad spend predication's. Global decline was predicted as being down by 5.8% while in the US this figure was predicted to fall by 9.8%.

For an industry that creaks and groans as soon as it is not experiencing year on year increases or 2-3% this data may appear to be a disaster but lets look at this more realistically.

Media rates have softened and it's entirely possible that much of this decline can be absorbed by cost reductions in strongly negotiated media buys. So any company who actually does slash a budget by 10% is probably going to net out with almost as much media as before.

Also a 10% decline in budgets means that for every marketer who is slashing their budget significantly (you perhaps?) there are others who are seeing the opportunity to grab market share of voice and actually increase activity. Also historically we know that those that do slash hard, also tend to be the most conservative and the slowest to come back.

Within the tech sector and indeed our own client base we have seen this pattern emerge. Some clients have reacted to market pressures by slashing back on spend and consolidating all activity into lead gen programs - completely abandoning significant outbound awareness marketing programs. Others are seizing the opportunity afforded by softer rates to buy stronger integrated campaigns which include a balanced mix of above the line components such as print ads, advertorials and targeted banner creative with direct contact strategies or lead development through content syndication, small personal events programs and virtual and web events.

While I fully understand the natural reaction within executives is to look at instant cost reduction (I am a CEO after all) I can only hope that marketing professionals in tech companies are not bowing to pressures and making decisions that will in the long term prove to be counter intuitive.

This is not the first recession we have seen and it's won't be the last. Ever noticed the pattern that those who emerge the strongest each time are the companies who didn't disappear off the face of the planet and stop talking to their customers?

Recognizing great work

So like many I'm a sucker for a good campaign and as a professional of the industry (and frustrated creative director since here at Just Media we do, well, 'just media') I do recognize excellence when I see it.

Today I'm congratulating the folks behind the new Guinness campaign. I came across this as an in-banner video on the Newsnow football (soccer) feed. Obviously well targeted to male sports fans (high likelihood of drinking beer in pubs) it immediately caught my attention.

The ad shows a classic build on the old Domino tumbling game that most guys are sure to have played when they were kids (probably girls as well but I have not checked this fact). In this version the 'domino's' consisted of books, cars, fridges, wardrobes and other assorted items. Apparently shooting this ad, which also featured as a TV spot was the most expensive in Guinness history.

Once I clicked on the ad it took me to a game where I was offered the chance to win a sold gold domino if I solved 11 clues. OK so I've only had time to solve four so far but I'm already hooked.

Here's the really clever stuff. These clues include a search feature which drives you to Google results. The agency has bought keyword ads which are the path to the results. In one case it links to You Tube where the clue is hidden in another video.

It's rare to find a creative so well leveraged across different media types, much less for the team behind the game to spend the time to build out a complex solution encompassing the latest web technologies both in terms of ad creative, and integration into the campaign. The landing page also features great flash creative work.

In a word this brilliant campaign shows just how sophisticated marketing programs are now becoming and also show why both media and creative agencies are working harder now than ever before to create truly unique and multi layered programs.

Hats off to the media and creative teams working on Guinness. I for one salute your endeavours...

Oh by the way did I mention the viral aspect of this ?????