Wow what a ride!

I was staggered to see that my last blog post was back in May. In some ways that reflects the internal shift in focus required by all during what was some massive upheavals within both the media industry and our own company. It's nice to finally come up for air.

I guess everyone who works in this industry has felt the effects. Layoffs have been abundant in media companies and across the board we have witnessed adjusted business models, pricing structures, staff skill sets and services. Ultimately organizations have been forced to reflect upon their own best practices. Change has been the most common theme over the last 6 months.

Just Media was no different. We lost two key staff members - long term employees who we miss greatly. But when client spends drop - in some cases by 90%, any organization needs to adjust to survive. Thankfully we are now back hiring again and able to take advantage of some great talent to boost our teams expertise. Adding new blood is a fantastic way to re-energize - new ideas, different experiences and fresh thinking - challenging the conventional thinking and creating new angles to attack and deliver upon existing client goals.

Client wise it's also been a roller coaster ride. Early signs in 2009 showed big budget cuts and the inevitable shift of dollars to ROI and lead gen - almost to the exclusion of all other media activity. That's tough for all. Small budgets as we all know don't take less time to manage. I lost count of projects that got planned only to get cut at the last minute when quarterly figures didn't match expectations. That frustrates everyone - clients and agency - everyone feels like they are stuck in the mud with wheels spinning.

However in the last few months things have changed. We have picked up some major wins - Hitachi Data Systems, Trinet HR services, Juniper Networks, Webroot and Stephens Bank - and whats interesting is that ALL are asking for assistance to develop strategies, plan and run branding and awareness campaigns. A return to true marketing perhaps?

So as analysts predict an end to the recession, companies appear now to be rushing to claim market and mind share from competitors. All realize the window for this is short and anyone who is sleeping now will miss one of those rare post recession openings to win and win big....

Maybe the real ride is only just beginning - buckle up....

Ad spends to drop in 2009 but should yours?

The parent company of Just Media's London office, Aegis Media, have just announced their 2009 media ad spend predication's. Global decline was predicted as being down by 5.8% while in the US this figure was predicted to fall by 9.8%.

For an industry that creaks and groans as soon as it is not experiencing year on year increases or 2-3% this data may appear to be a disaster but lets look at this more realistically.

Media rates have softened and it's entirely possible that much of this decline can be absorbed by cost reductions in strongly negotiated media buys. So any company who actually does slash a budget by 10% is probably going to net out with almost as much media as before.

Also a 10% decline in budgets means that for every marketer who is slashing their budget significantly (you perhaps?) there are others who are seeing the opportunity to grab market share of voice and actually increase activity. Also historically we know that those that do slash hard, also tend to be the most conservative and the slowest to come back.

Within the tech sector and indeed our own client base we have seen this pattern emerge. Some clients have reacted to market pressures by slashing back on spend and consolidating all activity into lead gen programs - completely abandoning significant outbound awareness marketing programs. Others are seizing the opportunity afforded by softer rates to buy stronger integrated campaigns which include a balanced mix of above the line components such as print ads, advertorials and targeted banner creative with direct contact strategies or lead development through content syndication, small personal events programs and virtual and web events.

While I fully understand the natural reaction within executives is to look at instant cost reduction (I am a CEO after all) I can only hope that marketing professionals in tech companies are not bowing to pressures and making decisions that will in the long term prove to be counter intuitive.

This is not the first recession we have seen and it's won't be the last. Ever noticed the pattern that those who emerge the strongest each time are the companies who didn't disappear off the face of the planet and stop talking to their customers?

Business predictions for 2009 and a look back...

As we start this new year, it's appropriate to look forward to 2009 predictions and also interesting to look back at 2008.

I was amazed and slightly perplexed to read my introduction notes to my 2008 predictions. At that time I was already noting tough times ahead for the economy and likely recession - interesting given that the actual arrival of this was really delayed in most peoples minds until the stock crash in October. This was confirmed in our own business figures. Up until October 2008 we had consistently been out performing 2007 and were up in both revenue and income. A very good year in fact with even more growth than I had thought possible.

Well as we enter 2009 I think everyone is now on the same recessionary page. Indeed the reactions appear to have swung almost into panic mode with concerns about the global economy the main subject of every holiday dinner conversation. People are worried and in ways which I cannot say I have experienced before.

The issue this time is the global scale of this recession and the fact that no-one really knows exactly how we will get out of it. Root to this confusion and concern is the nature of the problem. World financial markets have run riot and since they are global in nature they outreach the power of individual national political establishments to control them. Everyone has thrown money at the problem but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks that will actually work or who even thinks that solution is fair.

Bottom line is that this year we will see huge reaction to the worry with companies hunkering down - eliminating excess spends, jobs and scaling back to consolidate on core activities. It's CFO's perfect storm and they will become the single most important corporate player in 2009.

Probably the worst place to be in a recession is at the end of the marketing chain. Marcoms budgets are the easiest to cut and like many companies in the segment we can see 2009 budgets
being slashed back by almost every client as they prepare for the tight year ahead. We see the results already - WPP the global media/ad agency behemoth predicts scaling back it's operation in both US and Europe, this comes after similiar stories about rival Omnicom.

So what for Just Media in 2009. Well like 2008 I predict we will need to consolidate with our existing clients, expand the client base to make up for individual budget shortfalls and we will see even greater movement to performance based, lead gen activity. Goals for us this year will also include expanding some service offerings whether through partnerships or additions to the team. More on that laterin the month.

It's going to be a tough year of that I'm certain. However opportunities will continue to open up as businesses shift around agency relationships (especially those downsizing from big brand shops) and the need for specialist skills grows in value. We are well placed to capitalize on this and with hopes for a rebound later in 2009 it will be another crazy 12 months.

Safety belts will be obligatory....